THANKS FOR VISITING POOK'S SUN CITY CAROLINA LAKES NEWS!

Pook's Sun City Carolina Lakes News is both a website and a blog.  It contains up-to-date information about Sun City Carolina Lakes, a premier 55+ Active Adult Del Webb golf course community located in the panhandle of Lancaster County South Carolina, just a short distance south of the Ballantyne Area of beautiful Charlotte, North Carolina.  Looking for an affordable active lifestyle?  Sun City Carolina Lakes is the 55+ community for you!

The tabs above provide access to a wealth of information about Sun City Carolina Lakes and include up-to date stats for real estate sales in the community, as well as links to places and resources that you'll want to visit often.  

Want to search for homes for sale in Sun City Carolina Lakes?  Begin your search for Sun City Carolina Lakes resale homes right here!  Using the same property search tab, you can also search for homes for sale at two nearby 55+ Active Adult communities - TreeTops by Lennar and Carolina Orchards by Pulte.  Or, better yet, contact me to create a personalized search for you through the Canopy Multiple Listing Service (CMLS).  Doing so will create a portal that will allow you access to all that's out there.  If you would like me to create a personalized search for you with automatic updates, please contact me at PookBelliniHomes@gmail.com. 

As a blog, this site contains great articles and infographics about real estate and other topics of interest.  You'll want to come back regularly to see what's new!  

Blog postings are found just below this message, with newer postings at the top and older postings further down.  Since there is a limit to how many postings appear on a page, you will need to click on "older posts" (lower right corner of each page) to see older posts that do not currently appear on the main page. There are lots of posts hiding there... don't miss them!  You can also find postings by going to the ARCHIVE on the left sidebar.

Please be sure to go to my NorthGroup Real Estate website for more great information.  That website also allows you to search for homes, as well as check out mortgage and warranty information, and much more!

If you would like to receive my newsletter, please contact me at:

PookBelliniHomes@gmail.com 

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Please use the above tab labeled  

ACTIVE / UNDER CONTRACT / SOLD YTD

to view all currently Active, Under Contact, 
and Sold (Year-to-Date) listings in Sun City Carolina Lakes.  

Use the above tab labeled
UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL
to view the most current sales stats for
 New Listings, # of Homes for Sale, Pending Sales, Closed Sales, Average Days on Market, Months Supply of Homes for Sale, Average Days List to Close, and Average Percent of Original Price. Includes interactive graphs with monthly data going back to 2015. 
______________________________________

BLOG POSTINGS BEGIN BELOW

Since there is a limit to how many postings appear on a page, you will need to click on "older posts" (lower right corner of each page) to see previous posts. There are lots of posts hiding there... don't miss them! Alternatively, you can go to the BLOG ARCHIVE on the left sidebar and search for postings by date and title.

Early Forecasts for the 2025 Housing Market Infographic

 Infographic Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

Some Highlights

Thinking about making a move in 2025 and wondering what you can expect? Here’s what expert forecasts say lies ahead.

• Mortgage rates will come down slightly. More homes will sell. And prices will rise more moderately. 
• Connect with a local agent to discuss what these forecasts mean for your move and what to expect from your local market in 2025.

How the Federal Reserve’s Next Move Could Impact the Housing Market

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

Now that it’s September, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The overwhelming expectation is that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their upcoming meeting, driven primarily by recent signs that inflation is cooling, and the job market is slowing down. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, said:

“They’re ready to cut, just as long as we don’t get an inflation surprise between now and September, which we won’t.”

But what does this mean for the housing market, and more importantly, for you as a potential homebuyer or seller?

Why a Federal Funds Rate Cut Matters

The Federal Funds Rate is one of the key factors that influences mortgage rates – things like the economy, geopolitical uncertainty, and more also have an impact.

When the Fed cuts the Federal Funds Rate, it signals what’s happening in the broader economy, and mortgage rates tend to respond. While a single rate cut might not lead to a dramatic drop in mortgage rates, it could contribute to the gradual decline that’s already happening.

As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), points out:

“Once the Fed kicks off a rate-cutting cycle, we do expect that mortgage rates will move somewhat lower.”

And any upcoming Federal Funds Rate cut likely won’t be a one-time event. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Generally, the rate-cutting cycle is not one-and-done. Six to eight rounds of rate cuts all through 2025 look likely.”

The Projected Impact on Mortgage Rates

Here’s what experts in the industry project for mortgage rates through 2025. One contributing factor to this ongoing gradual decline is the anticipated cuts from the Fed. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, NAR, and Wells Fargo (see graph below):

 

So, with recent improvements in inflation and signs of a cooling job market, a Federal Funds Rate cut is likely to lead to a moderate decline in mortgage rates (shown in the dotted lines). Here are two big reasons why that’s good news for both buyers and sellers:

 

1. It Helps Alleviate the Lock-In Effect

For current homeowners, lower mortgage rates could help ease the lock-in effect. That’s where people feel stuck within their current home because today’s rates are higher than what they locked in when they bought their current house.

If the fear of losing your low-rate mortgage and facing higher costs has kept you out of the market, a slight reduction in rates could make selling a bit more attractive again. However, this isn’t expected to bring a flood of sellers to the market, as many homeowners may still be cautious about giving up their existing mortgage rate.

2. It Should Boost Buyer Activity

For potential homebuyers, any drop in mortgage rates will provide a more inviting housing market. Lower mortgage rates can reduce the overall cost of homeownership, making it more feasible for you if you’ve been waiting to make a move.

What Should You Do?

While a Federal Funds Rate cut is not expected to lead to drastically lower mortgage rates, it will likely contribute to the gradual decrease that’s already happening.

And while the anticipated rate cut represents a positive shift for the future of the housing market, it’s important to consider your options right now. Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, sums it up well:

“Timing the market is basically impossible. If you’re always waiting for perfect market conditions, you’re going to be waiting forever. Buy now only if it’s a good idea for you.”

Bottom Line

The expected Federal Funds Rate cut, driven by improving inflation and slower job growth, is likely to have a positive, albeit gradual, impact on mortgage rates. That could help unlock opportunities for you. When you’re ready, connect with a local real estate agent so you’re prepared to take action.

Could a 55+ Community Be Right for You?

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

Pook's thoughts can be found at the end of the article.

If you’re thinking about downsizing, you may be hearing about 55+ communities and wondering if they’d be a good fit for you. Here’s some information that could help you make your decision.

What Is a 55+ Community?

It’s important to note that these communities aren’t just for people who need extra support – they can be pretty vibrant, too. Many people who are downsizing opt for this type of home because they’re looking to be surrounded by people in a similar season of life. U.S. News explains:

“The terms ‘55-plus community,’ ‘active adult community,’ ‘lifestyle communities’ and ‘planned communities’ refer to a setting that caters to the needs and preferences of adults over the age of 55. These communities are designed for seniors who are able to care for themselves but may be looking to downsize to a community with others their same age and with similar interests.”

Why It’s Worth Considering This Type of Home

If that sounds like something that may interest you, here’s one thing to consider. You may find you’ve got a growing list of options if you look at this type of community. According to 55places.com, the number of listings tailored for homebuyers in this age group has increased by over 50% compared to last year.

And a bigger pool of options could make your move much less stressful because it’s easier to find something that’s specifically designed to meet your needs.

Other Benefits of 55+ Communities

On top of that, there are other benefits to seeking out this type of home. An article from 55places.com, highlights just a few:

• Lower-Maintenance Living: Tired of mowing the lawn or pulling weeds? Many of these communities take care of this for you. So, you can spend more time doing fun things, and less time on maintenance.
• On-Site Amenities: Some feature lifestyle amenities like a clubhouse, fitness center, and more, so it’s easy to stay active. Plus, others offer media rooms, libraries, spas, arts and craft studios, and more.
• Like-Minded Neighbors: Additionally, these types of homes usually offer clubs, outings, meet-ups, and more to foster a close-knit community.
• Accessible Floor Plans: Not to mention, many have first-floor living options, ample storage spaces, and modern floor plans so you can have a home tailored to this phase in your life.

Bottom Line

If this sounds appealing to you, reach out to a local real estate agent. They’ll be able to walk you through what’s available in your area and the unique amenities for each community. You may find a 55+ home is exactly what you’ve been searching for.

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Pook's thoughts:  I find it interesting that this article starts with "It’s important to note that these communities aren’t just for people who need extra support..."  Extra support??  55+ communities typically are NOT "assisted living" communities, but places where people come to enjoy a lifestyle geared toward their interests.  Of course, some people choose to be more active than others, but the options are out there for those who want to participate.  The offerings vary greatly by community, but the draw for most who are considering a 55+ community are the amenities, the lower maintenance options (which can vary quite a bit by community and even within a community), and the clubs and activities that are available.  

 

Over the past couple of weeks, I've talked about the differences between Sun City Carolina Lakes and nearby Tree Tops with several people who are considering a move to this area.  Both communities offer an active lifestyle, but, primarily due to size differences, the amenities and "the feel" are quite different.  As people visit these two locations, they seem to naturally gravitate to one or the other.  As a Sun City Carolina Lakes resident with a great working knowledge of Tree Tops, I am always happy to share what I know about these great communities. 

 

Of course, needs can change - sometimes quickly and sometimes gradually.  When help is needed beyond what can easily be handled at home by a family member or hired support, there are alternative choices out there in the greater community.  Short-term rehab facilities and progressive care options that offer independent and assisted living options, as well as skilled nursing care are great options if/when the active 55+ community isn't the best choice.  

So, yes, an ACTIVE 55+ community is a FABULOUS  choice when you're ready to write your next chapter!  Call me if you'd like to learn more!

2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect

 Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

Looking ahead to 2025, it’s important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you’re thinking of buying or selling a home next year, having a clear picture of what they’re calling for can help you make the best possible decision for your homeownership plans.

Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025.

Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down Slightly

Mortgage rates play a significant role in the housing market. The forecasts for 2025 from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Wells Fargo show an expected gradual decline in mortgage rates over the course of the next year (see chart below):

 

Mortgage rates are projected to come down because continued easing of inflation and a slight rise in unemployment rates are key signs of a strong but slowing economy. And many experts believe these signs will encourage the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate, which tends to lead to lower mortgage rates. As Morgan Stanley says:

“With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly.”

Expect More Homes To Sell

The market will see an increase in both the supply of available homes on the market, as well as a rise in demand, as more buyers and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines because of higher rates choose to make a move. That’s one big reason why experts are projecting an increase in home sales next year.

According to Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR, total home sales are forecast to climb slightly, with an average of about 5.4 million homes expected to sell in 2025 (see graph below):

 

That would represent a modest uptick from the lower sales numbers in 2023 and 2024. For reference, about 4.8 million total homes were sold in 2023, and expectations are for around 4.5 million homes to sell this year.

While slightly lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring a flood of buyers and sellers back to the market, they certainly will get more people moving. That means more homes available for sale – and competition among buyers who want to purchase them.

Home Prices Will Go Up Moderately

More buyers ready to jump into the market will put continued upward pressure on prices. Take a look at the latest price forecasts from 10 of the most trusted sources in real estate (see graph below):

 

On average, experts forecast home prices will rise nationally by about 2.6% next year. But as you can see, there’s a range of opinions on how much prices will climb. Experts agree, however, that home prices will continue to increase moderately next year at a slower, more normal rate. But keep in mind, prices will always vary by local market.

Bottom Line

Understanding 2025 housing market forecasts can help you plan your next move. Whether you're buying or selling, staying informed about these trends will ensure you make the best decision possible. Reach out to a trusted real estate agent to discuss how these forecasts could impact your plans.

What's the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

It’s no surprise that the upcoming Presidential election might have you speculating about what’s ahead. And those unanswered thoughts can quickly spiral, causing fear and uncertainty to swirl through your mind. So, if you’ve been considering buying or selling a home this year, you’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a good time to make your move.

Here’s the good news that may surprise you: typically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But your questions are definitely worth answering, so you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime.

Here’s a look at decades of data that shows exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates in previous Presidential election cycles, so you can move forward with the facts as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision.

Home Sales

In the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales (see graph below):

 

Some consumers will simply wait it out before they make their purchase decision. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is small and temporary.

Historically, home sales bounce right back and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the year after the election, and it’s been happening consistently since the early 1990s (see chart below):

 

Home Prices

You may also be wondering about home prices. Do prices come down during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of an election cycle. So, based on what history shows, you can expect the current pricing trend in your local market to likely continue, barring any unusual market or economic circumstances.

The latest data from NAR reveals that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see chart below):

 

The one outlier was from 2008 to 2009, which was during the height of the housing market crash. That was certainly not a typical year. Today’s market, however, is much more resilient. And while prices are moderating nationally, they aren’t on an overall decline.

Mortgage Rates

And the third thing that’s likely on your mind is mortgage rates, since they impact your monthly payment if you’re financing a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of them (see chart below):

 

And this year, we’ve already started to see that happen. Most experts also forecast mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If that happens – and all signs right now indicate it should – this year will continue to follow the trend of declining rates. So, if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be great news for your purchasing power.

What This Means for You

What’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually minimal. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. And this means you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. For help navigating the market during this election cycle, reach out to a local real estate agent.

What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For?

 Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

You won’t find anyone who’s going to argue that mortgage rates have had a big impact on housing affordability over the past couple of years. But there is hope on the horizon. Rates have actually started to come down. And, recently they hit the lowest point we’ve seen in 2024, according to Freddie Mac (see graph below):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that may leave you wondering: how much lower are they going to go? Here’s some information that can help you know what to expect.

Expert Projections for Mortgage Rates

Experts say the overall downward trend should continue as long as inflation and the economy keeps cooling. But as new reports come out on those key indicators, there’s going to be some volatility here and there.

What you need to remember is it’s not wise to let those blips distract you from the larger trend. Rates are still down roughly a full percentage point from the recent peak compared to May.

And the general consensus is that rates in the low 6s are possible in the months ahead, it just depends on what happens with the economy and what the Federal Reserve decides to do moving forward.

Most experts are already starting to revise their 2024 mortgage rate forecasts to be more optimistic that lower rates are ahead. For example, Realtor.com says:

“Mortgage rates have been revised slightly lower as signals from the economy suggest that it will be appropriate for the Fed to begin to cut its Federal Funds rate in 2024. Our yearly mortgage rate average forecast is down to 6.7%, and we revised our year-end forecast to 6.3% from 6.5%.”

Know Your Number for Mortgage Rates

So, what does this mean for you and your plans to move? If you’ve been holding out and waiting for rates to come down, know that it’s already happening. You just have to decide, based on the expert projections and your own budget, when you’ll be willing to jump back in. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:

“The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move.”

As a next step, ask yourself this: what number do I want to see rates hit before I’m ready to move?

Maybe it’s 6.25%. Maybe it’s 6.0%. Or maybe it’s once they hit 5.99%. The exact percentage where you feel comfortable kicking off your search again is personal. Once you have that number in mind, you don’t need to follow rates yourself and wait for it to become a reality.

Instead, connect with a local real estate professional. They’ll help you stay up to date on what’s happening and have a conversation about when to make your move. And once rates hit your target, they’ll be the first to let you know.

Bottom Line

If you’ve put your moving plans on hold because of higher mortgage rates, think about the number you want to see rates hit that would make you re-enter the market.

Once you have that number in mind, connect with a real estate professional so you have someone on your side to let you know when we get there.

The Biggest Mistakes Sellers Are Making Right Now

 Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

The housing market is going through a transition. Higher mortgage rates are causing more moderate buyer activity at the same time the supply of homes for sale is growing.

And if you aren’t working with an agent, you may not realize that. Here’s the downside. If you’re not informed, you can’t adjust your strategy or expectations to today’s market. And that can lead to a number of costly mistakes.

Here’s a look at some of the most common ones – and how an agent will help you avoid them when you sell. 

1. Overpricing Your House

Many sellers set their asking price too high and that’s why there’s an uptick in homes with price reductions today. An unrealistic price will deter potential buyers, cause an appraisal issue, or lead to your house sitting on the market longer. An article from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“Some sellers are pricing their homes higher than ever just because they can, but this may drive away serious buyers and result in unapproved appraisals . . .”

To avoid falling into this trap, partner with a pro. An agent uses recent sales of similar homes, the condition of your house, local market trends, and so much more to find the price that’ll attract more buyers and open the door for multiple offers and a faster sale.

2. Skipping the Small Stuff

You may try to skip important repairs, thinking you can pass the task on to your buyer. But visible issues (even if they’re small) can turn off potential buyers and result in lower offers or demands for concessions. As Money Talks News says:

“Home shoppers like to turn on lights, flush toilets and run the water. If these basic things don’t work, they may assume you’ve skipped other maintenance. Homes that appear neglected aren’t likely to fetch top price.”

If you want to get your house ready to sell, the best place to turn to for advice is your agent. They’ll be able to do a walk-through with you and point out anything you’ll need to tackle before the photographer comes in.

3. Not Looking at Things Objectively

Buyers today are feeling the pinch of high home prices and mortgage rates. With affordability that tight, they may come in with an offer that’s lower than you’d want to see – especially if you didn’t stage, price, or market the house well.

It’s important you don’t take this personally. Getting overly emotional can put the sale at risk. As an article from Ramsey Solutions says:

“Remember, a buyer’s offer is not a reflection of their opinion of your home or your housekeeping abilities. . . The sale of your home is strictly a business transaction. If they start out with a low offer, don’t take it personally and get emotional. Instead, channel that energy toward negotiating. Work with your agent and make a counteroffer.”

4. Being Unwilling To Negotiate

The supply of homes for sale has grown. That means buyers have more options, and with that comes more negotiation power. As a seller, you may see more buyers getting an inspection, requesting repairs, or asking for help with closing costs today. You need to be prepared to have those conversations. As U.S. News Real Estate explains:

“If you’ve received an offer for your house that isn’t quite what you’d hoped it would be, expect to negotiate . . . the only way to come to a successful deal is to make sure the buyer also feels like he or she benefits . . . consider offering to cover some of the buyer’s closing costs or agree to a credit for a minor repair the inspector found.”

An agent will walk you through what levers you may want to pull based on your own goals, budget, and timeframe.

5. Not Using a Real Estate Agent

Notice anything? For each of these mistakes, partnering with an agent helps prevent them from happening in the first place. That makes trying to sell your house without an agent’s help the biggest mistake of all.

Real estate agents have experience and expertise in pricing, marketing, negotiating, and more. That knowledge streamlines the selling process and usually results in drumming up more interest and ultimately can get you a higher final price.

Bottom Line

If you want to avoid making mistakes like these, you need to work with a real estate agent.

Days on Market

There are many factors that can affect how long a home remains on the market before going under contract, including pricing, condition of property, available inventory (by size and price range), current interest rates, uncertainty related to upcoming national elections, and sometimes things we just don't know.  Some factors may affect a particular home and others may affect the entire community.  If it's an issue with a particular home, it's important to make necessary changes and be realistic in pricing.  If it's a general slowdown, understand the market and be patient.

When looking at the graphs below it's important to understand that "average" can be deceiving... a home that takes a long time to go under contract averaged with a home that goes under contract in a day can change that blip on the graph quite a bit.  Either one can be an outlier.  

 

Additionally, there are times when some agents take a listing as an "Exclusive." Exclusive listings can only be shared with agents in the listing agent's company and cannot be put on MLS, shared on social media, or shared on other websites.  Sometimes those listings remain exclusive for months. Typically, the agent will remove the exclusivity when the property goes Under Contract and will then post it on MLS, showing ZERO Days on Market.  Obviously, that can seriously affect the average for the number of Days on Market.  And, while the listing agent appears to sell homes quickly, in reality, he or she may have had listings for a long time before they become public.  Note that because an Exclusive listing is seen by a limited number of potential Buyers, it can potentially lead to a lower sale price due to lack of competition. 

 

To get a better picture of our current market, look below each graph to see the current number of Days on Market (DOM) for currently ACTIVE and UNDER CONTRACT homes.

Click on images to enlarge.

 

SCCL Single Family Residences 

 

 

SCCL Villas and Carriage Homes 

 

TreeTops 

 

 

At any time, you can use the 

"Up to Date Stats" and "TreeTops" tabs above

to check out interactive charts for the following:

 

NEW LISTINGS

HOMES FOR SALE

PENDING SALES

CLOSED SALES

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

MONTHS SUPPLY OF HOMES FOR SALE

AVERAGE LIST TO CLOSE DAYS

AVERAGE PERCENT OF ORIGINAL PRICE

Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

Even if you didn’t own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As Business Insider says:

“Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond.”

Here’s why experts are so confident. For the market (and home prices) to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn’t show that’s happening. Right now, there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time – and that’s true even with the inventory growth we’ve seen this year. You see, the housing supply comes from three main sources:

• Homeowners deciding to sell their houses (existing homes)
• New home construction (newly built homes)
• Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)

And if we look at those three main sources of inventory, you’ll see it’s clear this isn’t like 2008.

Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses

Although the supply of existing (previously owned) homes is up compared to this time last year, it’s still low overall. And while this varies by local market, nationally, the current months’ supply is well below the norm, and even further below what we saw during the crash. The graph below shows this more clearly.

If you look at the latest data (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), we only have about a third of that available inventory today. 

So, what does this mean? There just aren’t enough homes available to make values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there’d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that’s not the case right now.

People are also talking a lot about what’s going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. Even though new homes make up a larger percentage of the total inventory than the norm, there’s no need for alarm. Here’s why.

The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. The orange on the graph shows the overbuilding that happened in the lead-up to the crash. And, if you look at the red in the graph, you’ll see that builders have been underbuilding pretty consistently since then: 

There’s just too much of a gap to make up. Builders aren’t overbuilding today, they’re catching up. A recent article from Bankrate says:

“What’s more, builders remember the Great Recession all too well, and they’ve been cautious about their pace of construction. The result is an ongoing shortage of homes for sale.”

Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)

The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. During the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.

Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show how things have changed since the housing crash: 

This graph makes it clear that as lending standards got tighter and buyers became more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures (shown in black) and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw when the market crashed.

While you may see headlines that foreclosure volume is ticking up – remember, that’s only compared to recent years when very few foreclosures happened. We’re still below the normal level we’d see in a typical year.

What This Means for You

Inventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. As Forbes explains:

“As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, points to the laws of supply and demand as a reason why we aren’t headed for a crash:

“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”

And Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“We will not have a repeat of the 2008–2012 housing market crash. There are no risky subprime mortgages that could implode, nor the combination of a massive oversupply and overproduction of homes.”

Bottom Line

The market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – and there’s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That’s why housing experts and inventory data tell us there isn’t a crash on the horizon.