The True Strength of Homeowners Today

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

The real estate market is on just about everyone’s mind these days. That’s because the unsustainable market of the past two years is behind us, and the difference is being felt. The question now is, just how financially strong are homeowners throughout the country? Mortgage debt grew beyond 10 trillion dollars over the past year, and many called that a troubling sign when it happened for the first time in history.

Recently Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, answered that question when she said:

“U.S. households own $41 trillion in owner-occupied real estate, just over $12 trillion in debt, and the remaining ~$29 trillion in equity. The national “LTV” in Q2 2022 was 29.5%, the lowest since 1983.”

She continued on to say:

“Homeowners had an average of $320,000 in inflation-adjusted equity in their homes in Q2 2022, an all-time high.”

What Is LTV?

The term LTV refers to loan to value ratio. For more context, here’s how the Mortgage Reports defines it:

“Your ‘loan to value ratio’ (LTV) compares the size of your mortgage loan to the value of the home. For example: If your home is worth $200,000, and you have a mortgage for $180,000, your LTV ratio is 90% — because the loan makes up 90% of the total price.

You can also think about LTV in terms of your down payment. If you put 20% down, that means you’re borrowing 80% of the home’s value. So your LTV ratio is 80%.”

Why Is This Important?

This is yet another reason we won’t see the housing market crash. Home equity allows homeowners to be in control. For example, if someone did need to sell their home, they likely have the equity they need to be able to sell it and still put money in their pocket. This was not the case back in 2008, when many owed more on their homes than they were worth.

Bottom Line

Homeowners today have more financial strength than they have had since 1983. This is a combination of how homeowners have handled equity since the crash and rising home prices of the last two years. And this is yet another reason homeownership in any market makes sense.

A Crucial First Step: Mortgage Pre-Approval [INFOGRAPHIC]

Infographic Courtesy of Keeping Current Matter/The KCM Blog

 

Some Highlights

• Mortgage pre-approval means a lender has reviewed your finances and, based on factors like your income, debt, and credit history, determined how much you’re qualified to borrow.
• Being pre-approved for a loan can give you clarity while planning your homebuying budget, confidence in your ability to secure a loan, and helps sellers know your offer is serious.
• Connect with a trusted professional to learn more and start your homebuying process today.

Is the Real Estate Market Slowing Down, or Is This a Housing Bubble?

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

The talk of a housing bubble in the coming year seems to be at a fever pitch as rising mortgage rates continue to slow down an overheated real estate market. Over the past two years, home prices have appreciated at an unsustainable pace causing many to ask: are things just slowing down, or is a crash coming?

To answer this question, there are two things we want to understand. The first is the reality of the shift in today’s housing market. And the second is what experts are saying about home prices in the coming year.

The Reality of the Shift in Today’s Housing Market

The reality is we’re seeing an inflection point in housing supply and demand. According to realtor.com, active listings have increased more than 26% over last year, while showings from the latest ShowingTime Showing Index have decreased almost 17% from last year (see graph below). This is an inflection point for housing because, over the past two years, we’ve seen a massive amount of demand (showings) and not enough homes available for sale for the number of people that wanted to buy. That caused the market frenzy.

Today, supply and demand look very different, and the market is slowing down from the pace we’ve seen. This offers proof of the sudden slowdown so many people are feeling.

What Experts Are Saying About Home Prices in the Coming Year

Right now, most experts are forecasting home price appreciation in 2023, but at a much slower pace than the last two years. The average of the six forecasters below is for national home prices to appreciate by 2.5% in the coming year. Only one of the six is calling for home price depreciation.

 

When we look at the shift taking place along with what experts are saying, we can conclude the national real estate market is slowing down but is not a bubble getting ready to burst. This isn’t to say that a few overheated markets won’t experience home price depreciation, but there isn’t a case to be made for a national housing bubble.

Bottom Line

The real estate market is slowing down, and that’s causing many to fear we’re in a housing bubble. What we’ve experienced in the housing market over the past two years were historic levels of demand and constrained supply. That led to homes going up in value at a record pace. While some overheated markets may experience price depreciation in the short term, according to experts, the national real estate market will appreciate in the coming year.

 

Expert Forecasts on Mortgage Rates

 Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

f you’ve been thinking of buying a home, you may have been watching what’s happened with mortgage rates over the past year. It’s true they’ve risen dramatically, but where will they go from here, especially as the market continues to slow?

As you think about your homeownership goals and decide if now’s the time to make your move, the best place to turn to for that information is the professionals. Here’s a summary of the latest mortgage rate forecasts from housing market experts.

Experts Project Mortgage Rates Will Stabilize

While mortgage rates continue to fluctuate due to ongoing inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, experts project they’ll start to stabilize in the months ahead. According to the latest projections, mortgage rates are expected to hover in the low to mid 5% range initially, and then potentially dip into the high 4% range by later next year (see chart below):

 

That could bring you some welcome relief. So far this year, mortgage rates have climbed over 2% due to the Federal Reserve’s response to inflation, and that’s made it more expensive to buy a home. And wondering if the rise in rates will continue is keeping some prospective buyers on the sidelines.

But now that experts say mortgage rates should stabilize, this gives you a bit more certainty about what they think the future holds, and that may help you feel more confident about your decision to buy a home.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re looking to buy your first home, move up to a larger home, or even downsize, you need to know what’s happening in the housing market so you can make the most informed decision possible. Reach out to a trusted real estate professional to discuss your goals and determine the best plan for your move.

Market Update

As I mentioned last month, although the number of ACTIVE listings is larger than we've seen in the past couple of years, historically, it remains a relatively small number and we remain in a seller's market.  That being said, homes are staying on the market for much longer than we've gotten used to and there may be fewer multiple offers and fewer buyers paying over asking price, so sellers need to price their homes appropriately for the current market. An infographic that I posted today (Here’s Why It’s Still a Sellers’ Market) provides a good visual explaining today's market.

While homes are staying on the market longer, they are continuing to appreciate.  A recent article that I posted (What’s Actually Happening with Home Prices Today?) says our current market is "decelerating," rather than depreciating, as "home prices continue to appreciate, although at a slower or more moderate pace."

There are many factors that affect the housing market, including rising interest rates and a looming recession.  However, for those thinking about selling, this remains a great time to do so.  For those who are looking to purchase a home, increased inventory and slowing demand makes this a good time for you, as well.  The important thing is for both buyers and sellers to understand our changing market.  Please visit my website regularly for up-to-date information about sales and for great informative articles.

The information below is current as of 9/2/22.  

Click on charts to enlarge.

ACTIVE LISTINGS

 

SCCL - SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCES

SCCL - CARRIAGE HOMES AND VILLAS

TREE TOPS

UNDER CONTRACT

SCCL - SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCES

SCCL - CARRIAGE HOMES AND VILLAS

 

TREE TOPS

 

LISTINGS THAT CLOSED IN JULY AND AUGUST

SCCL - SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCES

 

SCCL - CARRIAGE HOMES AND VILLAS

TREE TOPS

Here’s Why It’s Still a Sellers’ Market [INFOGRAPHIC]

 Infographic Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

Some Highlights

• While buyer demand has moderated and housing supply has grown in recent months, it’s still a sellers’ market because inventory is low.
• The latest data shows sellers continue to benefit from serious buyers and competitive offers. In July, the average home received 2.8 offers and 39% sold over the asking price.
• You haven’t missed your opportunity to sell. Work with a real estate professional to start the process today.