The UP-TO-DATE STATS tab above provides a wealth of data regarding our current market, including terrific interactive charts showing month-by-month data in a variety of catagories. However, there is one chart that I feel doesn't give the best picture of our current market. That is the MONTHS SUPPLY OF HOMES chart and here is my reasoning for providing my own calculations on the chart below.
The Statistical Analysis Module (SAM)
uses the following metric for Months Supply:
The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month,
divided by
the average monthly Pending Sales from the last 12 months.
This is known as the absorption rate.
My
personal preference is to divide the inventory of homes for sale at the
end of a given month by the number of homes that went under contract
(Pending Sales) in that month.
I believe this gives a better picture of what is happening right now.
With an increased number of homes and a decrease in homes going Under Contract, Single Family Residences (SFRs) moved from what is considered a Seller's Market to a Buyer's Market in August. Carriage Homes and Villas showed a similar change in June.
While the number of showings decreased during the summer months and there were quite a few price adjustments in response to that, we will likely see the market readjust in the coming months. Last year, there were only seven (7) SFR closings in September, indicating that the summer months were slow last year also. October and November had 14 and 12 closings respectively, suggesting there was greater activity in September and October.
Villas may continue to be affected by their increased monthly assessment, but, to date, 14 Villas and Carriage Homes have closed this year. While that's far short of last year's total of 35 closed properties, it's ahead of where they were at the same time in 2022 and 2023.
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