CURRENT MONTHS SUPPLY

In a June posting I offered some answers to the question WHAT KIND OF MARKET ARE WE IN?  As a follow up to that posting, I want to share the most current information about the current month's supply of homes here in SCCL, which indicates that we are still in what is considered a "Seller's Market."

 

 

 SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

 

 

CARRIAGE HOMES AND VILLAS 

 

Are we in a Buyers' or Sellers' market?

 

 Home Inventory Determines What Kind of Market We Are In

Months of supply is the measure of how many months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales. For example, if there are 50 homes on the market and 10 homes selling each month, there is a 5 month supply of homes for sale.  

• Less than 6 months of inventory = Seller's Market with upward pressure on prices
• More than 6 months of inventory = Buyer's Market with downward pressure on prices

Use the UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL tab above (and scroll down below the STATS charts) to see "Months Supply of Homes for Sale" interactive graphs below at any time.  

 

You can use the UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL tab above

to see additional graphs with the following information:

 HOMES FOR SALE • PENDING SALES • CLOSED SALES • AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET • AVERAGE LIST TO CLOSE DAYS • AVERAGE PERCENT OF ORIGINAL PRICE

 

How many homes are for sale in SCCL right now?  

The answer to this question can always be found right here at my website by using the UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL and CURRENTLY ACTIVE / UNDER CONTRACT / SOLD YTD tabs at the top of the page.  

 

 

The 3 Things You Risk by Pricing Too High

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

When selling your house, the price you choose isn’t just a number, it’s a strategy. And in today’s market, that strategy needs to be sharp.

The number of homes for sale is climbing. And that means buyers have more choices and can be more selective. If your price doesn’t line up with what else is out there, they’ll scroll right past it and go on to the next one.

Pricing right from the start is your best move – and a great agent can help make sure you do.

Overpricing Comes at a Cost

And more sellers are finding that out the hard way. They list their house based on how things were a year ago – or based on a neighbor’s sale that happened under completely different circumstances. Then, when their house doesn’t sell, they’re left with three tough choices:

1. Drop the price: Cutting the price might help get more eyes on the house again, but it can also trigger red flags. Buyers may wonder what’s wrong with it. And that’s going to impact any offers you get after the price cut.
2. Take it off the market: Some sellers give up on the idea of selling right now. The worst part about this is it means putting their future plans on the back burner. That dream of more space, downsizing, or relocating? On pause.
3. Rent it out: Others go the landlord route, but managing tenants and navigating leases isn’t always the simple fallback it seems. Renting can work, but it’s often a lot more hassle than people expect.

None of those options were part of the original plan. And honestly, none of them are where you should end up if you wanted to sell. Here’s a look at how a local agent’s expertise can help you avoid these headaches. Let’s use price cuts as an example.

Where You Live Makes a Difference

While the number of price cuts is up nationally, data shows some parts of the country are seeing far more of them than others. It all comes down to how much inventory has grown in that area (see map below):

As Realtor.com explains:

“Regionally, price reductions in June were significantly more common in the South and West (23% of listings) than they were in the Northeast (13% of listings), reflecting the inventory divergence across these regions.”

That means pricing isn’t one-size-fits-all. What’s happening nationally might not reflect what’s happening in your zip code, and that’s why you shouldn’t try to determine your list price on your own.

How a Great Agent Helps You Nail the Price

A skilled agent doesn’t just toss out a number. As Zillow says:

“Well-priced homes are more likely to sell quickly, but pricing your home to sell quickly and for maximum dollar requires strategy and knowledge of your local market. You need to have a clear-eyed view of your home in relation to the competition, and knowledge about whether you’re in a buyers or sellers market. It also helps to know what buyers in your area can afford.” 

And that’s all knowledge your agent will have. They study your local market, compare recent sales, and factor in your goals and buyer behavior. Based on what’s happening where you live, sometimes the best play will be pricing right at current market value. Other times pricing a little lower actually will spark more offers and ultimately get you a better final sale price.

So don’t skimp on the strategy or on your agent. With their local market know-how, you’ll be able to sell quickly, even in a shifting market. 

Bottom Line

Overpricing can lead to tough choices you never want to face. But with the right price, and the right guidance, you can skip the stress and sell with confidence. Connect with a local agent so you have a pricing strategy that works for today’s market and gets you where you want to go. 

Today’s Tale of Two Housing Markets

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

Depending on where you live, the housing market could feel red-hot or strangely quiet right now. The truth is, local markets are starting to move in different directions. In some places, buyers are calling the shots. In others, sellers still hold the power. It’s a tale of two markets.

 

What’s a Buyer’s Market vs. a Seller’s Market?

In a buyer’s market, there are more homes for sale and not as many buyers. That means homes sit longer, buyers have more negotiating power, and prices tend to soften as a result. It’s simple supply and demand.

On the flip side, a seller’s market happens when there aren’t enough homes available for the number of people looking to buy them. Because buyers have to compete with each other to get the house they want, that leads to faster sales, multiple offers, and rising prices.

Right now, both of these scenarios are playing out, depending on where you are. So, how do you know what kind of market you’re in? Lean on a local real estate agent. They’ll explain what’s really happening in your area based on these key drivers.

The Number of Buyers and Sellers by Region

One of the biggest factors impacting each market is the number of active buyers and sellers. According to Redfin, here’s what that looks like by region (see graph below):

Today, the Northeast and Midwest are more likely to be seller’s markets. Buyers still outnumber sellers there, and that keeps things tilted in favor of homeowners. Generally speaking, homes are selling faster and prices are rising in those areas.

But the South and West are leaning more toward buyer’s markets. There are more sellers than buyers, which means more listings to choose from and less competition among buyers.

That’s a major shift from a few years ago when sellers had the advantage almost everywhere. Today, your local conditions matter more than ever – and they can vary even from one neighborhood to the next.

Price Trends Mirror the Buyer/Seller Divide

When inventory and buyer activity shift, so do prices. In places where demand still outpaces supply, like much of the Northeast and Midwest, prices are continuing to climb.

But in parts of the South and West where inventory is up and demand has cooled, prices are softening. And that’s a plus for buyers looking to negotiate in those areas.

Here’s the latest price data from ResiClub to show how this divide is shaking out across the top metros in the country (see graph below):

This is why it’s the tale of two markets. Roughly half of the top 50 metros are up, and half are relatively flat or down.

That said, don’t panic if you own a home in a market where prices are dipping. Most homeowners have built up significant equity over the past few years, and chances are you have too. So, you’re likely still come out way ahead when you sell.

Why Local Insights Matter

Even in regions that lean more buyer-friendly right now, there will be cities, towns, and even neighborhoods that don’t follow the regional trends. That’s why an agent’s local market expertise is so important. They can help you understand what’s happening all the way down to a zip code level, including:

• Whether your area is favoring buyers or sellers
• How to set the right price or craft an offer strategy based on local trends
• The best way to make your move happen, no matter what’s happening in the market

Bottom Line

In a market where conditions vary this much from place to place, success starts with understanding every aspect of your local area. Connect with a local agent so you’ve got an expert in your corner who knows exactly how to guide you through your market, wherever you are. 

 

Housing Market Forecasts for the Rest of 2025

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

 

 If you’ve been watching the market, you’ve likely noticed a few changes already this year. But what’s next? From home prices to mortgage rates, here’s what the latest expert forecasts suggest for the rest of 2025 – and what these shifts could mean for you.

 

  

 

Will Home Prices Fall?

Many buyers are hoping home prices will come down soon. And recent headlines about prices dipping in some areas are making some people believe it’s just a matter of time before there’s a bigger drop. But here are the facts.

While home price growth is slowing down, that doesn’t mean we’re headed for a crash. As NAHB explains:

“House price growth slowed . . . partly due to a decline in demand and an increase in supply. Persistent high mortgage rates and increased inventory combined to ease upward pressure on house prices. These factors signaled a cooling market, following rapid gains seen in previous years.”

But experts say, even with that slowdown, prices will still rise this year at the national level. The average of 8 leading forecasters shows prices are expected to go up 1.5-2% in 2025 (see graph below):

That means, if you’re waiting for a major drop, experts agree that’s just not in the cards.

Keep in mind, while some markets are already seeing prices come down slightly, the average dip is just -3.5%. That’s a far cry from the nearly 20% decline the market experienced during the 2008 crash.

Plus, those small changes are easily absorbed when you consider how much home prices have climbed over the past few years. Data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows prices are up 55% nationally compared to just 5 years ago.

The takeaway? Prices aren’t crashing. They’re expected to keep climbing – just not as quickly these days. And some may argue they’ll be closer to flat by the end of this year. But, again, this is going to vary by market, with some local ups and downs. So, lean on a pro to see the latest price trends for your area.

Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?

Another common thought among today’s buyers is: I’m just going to wait for rates to come down. But is that a smart strategy? According to Yahoo Finance:

“If you’re looking for a substantial interest rate drop in 2025, you’ll likely be left waiting. The latest news from the Federal Reserve and other key economic data point toward steady mortgage rates on par with what we see today.”

In other words, don’t try to time the market or wait for a drop that may not be coming. Most experts say rates will remain in the 6s, and current projections have them settling in the mid-6% range by the end of this year (see chart below):

And that’s not a big change from where they are right now. So, if you need to move, let’s talk about how to make it happen and what you should watch for. Because while rates may not be as low as you want them to be, you don’t want to put your needs on the back burner, hoping for something the data shows isn’t likely to happen.

Working with an expert who is keeping an eye on all the economic factors that can influence mortgage rates is going to be essential this year. That’s because changes in things like inflation and other key drivers could impact how rates move going forward. 

The Takeaway for Buyers and Sellers

Whether you’re buying, selling, or thinking about doing both, this market requires strategy, not guesswork. Prices are still rising nationally (just more slowly), and rates are projected to stay pretty much where they are, so the bigger picture is one of moderation – not a meltdown.

Bottom Line

If you want to make a move, your best bet is to focus on your personal situation – not what the headlines say – and work with a real estate pro who knows how to navigate the shifting conditions in your local market. 

The Truth About Where Home Prices Are Heading

 Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

There are plenty of headlines these days calling for a housing market crash. But the truth is, they’re not telling the full story. Here’s what’s actually happening, and what the experts project for home prices over the next 5 years. And spoiler alert – it’s not a crash.

Yes, in some local markets, prices are flattening or even dipping slightly this year as more homes hit the market. That’s normal with rising inventory. But the bigger picture is what really matters, and it’s far less dramatic than what the doom-and-gloom headlines suggest. Here’s why.

Over 100 leading housing market experts were surveyed in the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae. Their collective forecast shows prices are projected to keep rising over the next 5 years, just at a slower, healthier pace than what we’ve seen more recently. And that kind of steady, sustainable growth should be one factor to help ease your fears about the years ahead (see graph below): 

And if you take a look at how the various experts responded within the survey, they fall into three main categories: those that were most optimistic about the forecast, most pessimistic, and the overall average outlook.

Here’s what the breakdown shows:

• The average projection is about 3.3% price growth per year, through 2029.
• The optimists see growth closer to 5.0% per year.
• The pessimists still forecast about 1.3% growth per year.

Do they all agree on the same number? Of course not. But here’s the key takeaway: not one expert group is calling for a major national decline or a crash. Instead, they expect home prices to rise at a steady, more sustainable pace.

That’s much healthier for the market – and for you. Yes, some areas may see prices hold relatively flat or dip a bit in the short term, especially where inventory is on the rise. Others may appreciate faster than the national average because there are still fewer homes for sale than there are buyers trying to purchase them. But overall, more moderate price growth is cooling the rapid spikes we saw during the frenzy of the past few years.

And remember, even the most conservative experts still project prices will rise over the course of the next 5 years. That’s also because foreclosures are low, lending standards are in check, and homeowners have near record equity to boost the stability of the market. Together, those factors help prevent a wave of forced sales, like the kind that could drag prices down. So, if you’re waiting for a significant crash before you buy, you might be waiting quite a long time.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been on the fence about your plans, now’s the time to get clarity. The market isn’t heading for a crash – it’s on track for steady, slow, long-term growth overall, with some regional ups and downs along the way.

Want to know what that means for your neighborhood? Because national trends set the tone, but what really matters is what’s happening in your zip code. Connect with a real estate agent to have a quick conversation so you can see exactly what the local data means for you. 

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WHAT KIND OF MARKET ARE WE IN?

I am frequently asked about what our housing market is like right now.  In reality, that's more than one question, so I'll attempt to answer the questions that I think people are most concerned about.

 

How many homes are for sale in SCCL right now?  

The answer to this question can always be found right here at my website by using the UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL and CURRENTLY ACTIVE / UNDER CONTRACT / SOLD YTD tabs at the top of the page.  

 

Are we in a Buyers' or Sellers' market?

 

 Home Inventory Determines What Kind of Market We Are In

Months of supply is the measure of how many months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales. For example, if there are 50 homes on the market and 10 homes selling each month, there is a 5 month supply of homes for sale.  

• Less than 6 months of inventory = Seller's Market with upward pressure on prices
• More than 6 months of inventory = Buyer's Market with downward pressure on prices

Use the UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL tab above (and scroll down below the STATS charts) to see "Months Supply of Homes for Sale" interactive graphs below at any time.  

 

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

CARRIAGE HOMES AND VILLAS

 

You can use the UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL tab above

to see additional graphs with the following information:

 HOMES FOR SALE • PENDING SALES • CLOSED SALES • AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET • AVERAGE LIST TO CLOSE DAYS • AVERAGE PERCENT OF ORIGINAL PRICE

 

A Historical Look at the SCCL market... 

Looking back ten years... the largest number of single family homes for sale was 73 in September of 2017.  At that time, there was a 7 month supply, considered a Buyers' Market.

 

 

 

The largest number of Carriage Homes and Villas for sale (prior to the 12 today) was 11 in February of 2018.  At that time, there was a 5.8 month supply, considered to be at the high end of a Sellers' Market.

 

 

 

Note that Pulte sold their last home in SCCL in 2016, 

so some homes in 2015 and 2016 were new builds.

 

Why are so many homes on the market now?

It is important to understand that many of the original owners who purchased when SCCL opened almost twenty years ago are now into their eighties.  Life changes, needs change.  As we get older, our ability (and desire) to keep up a home, shop, cook, drive, deal with medical needs and everyday life may require us to move somewhere that can better meet our current needs. That might mean a continuous care community that covers the range from independent living to skilled nursing or memory care, or moving to be closer to family for support. There are many other reasons that people move, but the current number of homes on the market suggests that many of our residents may be aging out and looking for an alternative living style to meet their needs.

 

Is this a good time to sell?

I frequently tell people that we don't run on a school year schedule, so we don't face the spring/summer rush to get settled before school starts. Buyers are coming to SCCL for a variety of reasons and at various times of year.  Some are looking to get away from winter weather, some are looking to be closer to family, some are still working and move to be close to their employment, and most are looking at our great location (proximity to Charlotte, South Carolina taxes, nearby medical facilities, shopping, and major highways, etc.) and our year-round active lifestyle.  Summer, being a vacation time for many, might mean a slow-down in Buyers... or it might be a good time for folks to visit while on vacation. While it might be a little slower during the heat of the summer, it's always a good time to sell, if that's what meets your needs.    

 

Are sales being affected by mortgage rates?

While mortgage rates are certainly higher than they were four or five years ago, they are still considerably lower than the crazy high rates we remember back in 1981 and the decade that followed.  For some, the current rate may make a difference, but for many who are cashing out on homes they've lived in for a long time, it may not matter.  In October 2023, in a posting called ARE THERE MORE CASH OR LOAN SALES IN SCCL AND TREE TOPS?,  I shared that over half of the homes in SCCL were cash purchases.

 

In case you missed it, here's a great article about Sellers with existing low mortgage rates chosing to move: Why More Sellers Are Choosing To Move, Even with Today’s Rates

 

Here is a posting about interest rates from a March 2018 posting 

that you might find interesting.

Be Thankful You Don't Have to Pay Your Parents' Interest Rate!

If you have any additional questions about our SCCL market, please give me a call!

Why More Sellers Are Choosing To Move, Even with Today’s Rates

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

It’s hard to let go of a 3% mortgage rate. There’s no question about it. It’s the main reason why so many homeowners have delayed their move in recent years. But here’s something to consider.

While your low rate might be ideal, it doesn’t make up being too cramped, having a staircase your knees can’t handle anymore, or being 1,000 miles from your family. And those real-life needs are pushing more sellers off the fence despite today’s rates.

Data shows the share of homeowners with a mortgage rate below 3% is dropping as more people move. And, as a result, the share of homeowners taking on a mortgage rate above 6% is rising, too (see graph below):

The Biggest Reasons People Are Moving Right Now

Why are some homeowners willing to take on a higher rate? A survey from Realtor.com helps shed light on that. It shows 79% of homeowners considering selling today are doing it out of necessity. And that same survey says most of the necessary reasons people are moving are non-financial in nature (see graph below):

 

 

Do any of these reasons resonate for you, too? 

• You Need More Space: Whether it’s a new baby, children needing their own rooms, or having your parents move in so it’s easier to take care of them, outgrowing your space can happen fast.
  

• You Need Less Space: The kids are out of the house now and you’re craving a life that’s a little simpler. Downsizing can be a major relief: fewer rooms to clean, less to maintain, and lower utility bills, too.
  

• You Want to Be Closer to Family: Whether it’s to help with grandchildren or care for aging parents, sometimes the pull of being near loved ones outweighs the math.
  

• A Relationship in Your Life Has Changed: Divorce, separation, or moving in together after a marriage or new partnership – all can create the need for a fresh start and a new place to call home.
  

• Your Job Is Taking You Somewhere New: If you finally landed your dream job or your partner’s company is relocating, you may need to move too.

 

What About Mortgage Rates?

Yes, experts expect mortgage rates to ease, but slowly. The latest projections show only modest declines this year – not the 3% you may be hoping for (see graph below): 

So, while waiting for a big drop in rates might sound strategic, it could just mean more time feeling stuck in a space that no longer fits. And for many, that waiting game has already gone on long enough.

According to Realtor.com, nearly 2 in 3 potential sellers have been thinking about moving for over a year. If you’re one of them, maybe it’s time to ask:

How much longer are you willing to press pause on your life?

Bottom Line

Maybe your current house fit your life five years ago. But that “for now” house you bought in 2020? It just can’t deliver on what you need in 2025. And that’s not just okay, it’s normal.

Mortgage rates are part of the equation, for sure. But the bigger question is:

What kind of home do you need to support the life you’re living now?

Talk to an agent about what’s changed, and what kind of move would actually take your life forward.

 

Why Most Sellers Hire Real Estate Agents Today

 Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

Selling your house without an agent as a “For Sale by Owner” (FSBO) may be something you’ve considered. But you should know that, in today’s shifting market, more homeowners are deciding that’s just not worth the risk.

According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the number of homeowners selling without an agent has hit an all-time low (see graph below):

And for the small number of homeowners who do decide to sell on their own, data shows they’re still not confident they’re making a good choice.

A recent survey finds three out of every four homeowners who don’t plan to use an agent have doubts about whether that’s actually the right decision.

And here’s why. The market is changing – not in a bad way, just in a way that requires a smarter, more strategic approach. And having a real estate expert in your corner really pays off.

Here are just two of the ways an agent’s expertise makes a difference.

1. Getting the Price Right in a Market That’s Evolving

One of the biggest hurdles when selling a house on your own is figuring out the right price. It’s not as simple as picking a number that sounds good or selling your house for what your neighbor’s sold for a few years back – you need to hit the bullseye for where the market is right now. Without an agent’s help, you’re more likely to miss the mark. As Zillow explains:

“Agents are pros when it comes to pricing properties and have their finger on the pulse of your local market. They understand current buying trends and can provide insight into how your home compares to others for sale nearby.”

Basically, they know what’s really selling, what buyers are willing to pay in your area, and how to position your house to sell quickly. That kind of insight can have a big impact, especially in a market that’s balancing out.

2. Handling (and Actually Understanding) the Legal Documents

There’s also a mountain of documentation when selling a house, including everything from disclosures to contracts. And a mistake can have big legal implications. This is another area where having an agent can help.

They’ve handled these documents countless times and know exactly what’s needed to keep everything on track, so you avoid delays. And now that buyers are including more contingencies again and asking for concessions, your agent will guide you through each form step by step, making sure it’s done right and documented correctly the first time.

3. Selling Your House Quickly Even in a Shifting Market

Now that the number of homes for sale has grown, homes aren’t selling at quite the same pace they were. But you can still sell quickly if you have a proven plan to help your house stand out.

Just remember, homeowners don’t have the same network or marketing tools an experienced agent does. So, if you want the process to happen fast, you’ll likely want a pro by your side. 

Bottom Line

Having the right agent and the right strategy is key in a shifting market. Connect with a local pro so you don’t have to take this on solo – and so you can list with confidence, knowing you’ve got expert guidance from day one.

 

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