BEAUTIFUL SURREY CREST WITH BASEMENT

 

 

 

 

57142 Nightingale Way Website                     CLOSED

 

This beautiful Surrey Crest home is on a charming tree-lined cul-de-sac in the highly sought after Grey Hawk neighborhood and is conveniently located near The Lodge amenity center and Water's Edge Park. Enjoy views of the beautiful rear woods from the primary bedroom, office/den, three-season porch, and upper deck, as well as from the basement bedroom and living area, and covered lower patio. The beautiful kitchen has granite counters, a tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and fabulous pull-out shelves. The washer and dryer in the laundry room, which is conveniently located between the kitchen and the garage, both convey. The large basement has a great room with a bar/serving area, a flex room that would make a great study, office, or craft room, a large bedroom & bath, and a large unfinished utility room/storage area. This fabulous home has been freshly painted, has new carpeting, and is move-in ready! 

Now is the time to live your dream! Come and enjoy all the beautiful amenities & diverse activities this premier 55+ community has to offer!  Sun City Carolina Lakes has a public golf course and is in close proximity to shopping, restaurants, medical facilities, recreation areas, entertainment, and more!

 

Why 50% of Homes Are Selling for Under Asking and How To Avoid It

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

If your selling strategy still assumes you’ll get multiple offers over asking, it’s officially time for a reset. That frenzied seller’s market is behind us. And here are the numbers to prove it.

 

From Frenzy to “Normal” 

Right now, about 50% of homes on the market are selling for less than their asking price, according to the latest data from Cotality.

But that isn’t necessarily bad news, even if it feels like it. Here’s why. The wild run-up over the last few years was never going to be sustainable. The housing market needed a reset, and data shows that’s exactly what’s happening right now.

The graph below uses data from Zillow to show how this trend has shifted over time. Here’s what it tells us:

• 2018–2019: 50–55% of homes sold under asking. That was the norm.
• 2021–2022: Only 25% sold under asking, thanks to record-low rates and intense buyer demand.
• 2025: 50% of homes are selling below asking. That’s much closer to what’s typical in the housing market.

Why This Matters If You’re Selling Your House

In this return to normal, your pricing strategy is more important than ever.

A few years ago, you could overprice your house and still get swarmed with offers. But now, buyers have more options, tighter budgets, and less urgency.

Today, your asking price can be make or break for your sale, especially right out of the gate. Your first two weeks on the market are the most important window because that’s when the most serious buyers are paying attention to your listing. Miss your price during that crucial period, and your sale will grind to a halt. Buyers will look right past it. And once your listing sits long enough to go stale, it’ll be hard to sell for your asking price.

The Ideal Formula

Basically, sellers who cling to outdated expectations end up dealing with price cuts, lower offers, and a longer time just sitting on the market. But homeowners who understand what’s happening are still winning, even today.

Because that stat about 50% of homes selling for under asking also means the other half are selling at or above – as long as they’re priced right from the start.

So, how do you set yourself up for success? Do these 3 things:

1. Prep your house. Tackle essential repairs and touch-ups before you list. If your house looks great, you’ll have a better chance to sell at (or over) your asking price.
2. Price strategically from day one. Don’t rely on what nearby homes are listed for. Lean on your agent for what they’ve actually sold for. And price your house based on that.
3. Stay flexible. Be ready to negotiate. And know that it doesn’t always have to be on price. It may be on repairs, closing costs, or some other detail. But know this: today’s serious buyers expect some give-and-take.

If you want your house to be one that sells for at (or even more than) your asking price, it’s time to plan for the market you’re in today – not the one we saw a few years ago. And that’s exactly why you need a stand-out local agent.

Bottom Line

You don’t want to fall behind in this market.

So, talk to an agent about what buyers in your area are paying right now. With their expertise and a strategy that gets your house noticed 

OUR CHANGING MARKET

The UP-TO-DATE STATS tab above provides a wealth of data regarding our current market, including terrific interactive charts showing month-by-month data in a variety of catagories.  However, there is one chart that I feel doesn't give the best picture of our current market.  That is the MONTHS SUPPLY OF HOMES chart and here is my reasoning for providing my own calculations on the chart below.

The Statistical Analysis Module (SAM)

uses the following metric for Months Supply:

The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, 

divided by the average monthly Pending Sales from the last 12 months. 

This is known as the absorption rate. 

 

My personal preference is to divide the inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month by the number of homes that went under contract (Pending Sales) in that month. 

I believe this gives a better picture of what is happening right now.

 

With an increased number of homes and a decrease in homes going Under Contract, Single Family Residences (SFRs) moved from what is considered a Seller's Market to a Buyer's Market in August. Carriage Homes and Villas showed a similar change in June. 

 

While the number of showings decreased during the summer months and there were quite a few price adjustments in response to that, we will likely see the market readjust in the coming months.  Last year, there were only seven (7) SFR closings in September, indicating that the summer months were slow last year also.  October and November had 14 and 12 closings respectively, suggesting there was greater activity in September and October.  

 

Villas may continue to be affected by their increased monthly assessment, but, to date, 14 Villas and Carriage Homes have closed this year.  While that's far short of last year's total of 35 closed properties, it's ahead of where they were at the same time in 2022 and 2023. 

CURRENT MONTHS SUPPLY

In a June posting I offered some answers to the question WHAT KIND OF MARKET ARE WE IN?  As a follow up to that posting, I want to share the most current information about the current month's supply of homes here in SCCL, which indicates that we are still in what is considered a "Seller's Market."

 

 

 SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

 

 

CARRIAGE HOMES AND VILLAS 

 

Are we in a Buyers' or Sellers' market?

 

 Home Inventory Determines What Kind of Market We Are In

Months of supply is the measure of how many months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales. For example, if there are 50 homes on the market and 10 homes selling each month, there is a 5 month supply of homes for sale.  

• Less than 6 months of inventory = Seller's Market with upward pressure on prices
• More than 6 months of inventory = Buyer's Market with downward pressure on prices

Use the UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL tab above (and scroll down below the STATS charts) to see "Months Supply of Homes for Sale" interactive graphs below at any time.  

 

You can use the UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL tab above

to see additional graphs with the following information:

 HOMES FOR SALE • PENDING SALES • CLOSED SALES • AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET • AVERAGE LIST TO CLOSE DAYS • AVERAGE PERCENT OF ORIGINAL PRICE

 

How many homes are for sale in SCCL right now?  

The answer to this question can always be found right here at my website by using the UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL and CURRENTLY ACTIVE / UNDER CONTRACT / SOLD YTD tabs at the top of the page.  

 

 

The 3 Things You Risk by Pricing Too High

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

When selling your house, the price you choose isn’t just a number, it’s a strategy. And in today’s market, that strategy needs to be sharp.

The number of homes for sale is climbing. And that means buyers have more choices and can be more selective. If your price doesn’t line up with what else is out there, they’ll scroll right past it and go on to the next one.

Pricing right from the start is your best move – and a great agent can help make sure you do.

Overpricing Comes at a Cost

And more sellers are finding that out the hard way. They list their house based on how things were a year ago – or based on a neighbor’s sale that happened under completely different circumstances. Then, when their house doesn’t sell, they’re left with three tough choices:

1. Drop the price: Cutting the price might help get more eyes on the house again, but it can also trigger red flags. Buyers may wonder what’s wrong with it. And that’s going to impact any offers you get after the price cut.
2. Take it off the market: Some sellers give up on the idea of selling right now. The worst part about this is it means putting their future plans on the back burner. That dream of more space, downsizing, or relocating? On pause.
3. Rent it out: Others go the landlord route, but managing tenants and navigating leases isn’t always the simple fallback it seems. Renting can work, but it’s often a lot more hassle than people expect.

None of those options were part of the original plan. And honestly, none of them are where you should end up if you wanted to sell. Here’s a look at how a local agent’s expertise can help you avoid these headaches. Let’s use price cuts as an example.

Where You Live Makes a Difference

While the number of price cuts is up nationally, data shows some parts of the country are seeing far more of them than others. It all comes down to how much inventory has grown in that area (see map below):

As Realtor.com explains:

“Regionally, price reductions in June were significantly more common in the South and West (23% of listings) than they were in the Northeast (13% of listings), reflecting the inventory divergence across these regions.”

That means pricing isn’t one-size-fits-all. What’s happening nationally might not reflect what’s happening in your zip code, and that’s why you shouldn’t try to determine your list price on your own.

How a Great Agent Helps You Nail the Price

A skilled agent doesn’t just toss out a number. As Zillow says:

“Well-priced homes are more likely to sell quickly, but pricing your home to sell quickly and for maximum dollar requires strategy and knowledge of your local market. You need to have a clear-eyed view of your home in relation to the competition, and knowledge about whether you’re in a buyers or sellers market. It also helps to know what buyers in your area can afford.” 

And that’s all knowledge your agent will have. They study your local market, compare recent sales, and factor in your goals and buyer behavior. Based on what’s happening where you live, sometimes the best play will be pricing right at current market value. Other times pricing a little lower actually will spark more offers and ultimately get you a better final sale price.

So don’t skimp on the strategy or on your agent. With their local market know-how, you’ll be able to sell quickly, even in a shifting market. 

Bottom Line

Overpricing can lead to tough choices you never want to face. But with the right price, and the right guidance, you can skip the stress and sell with confidence. Connect with a local agent so you have a pricing strategy that works for today’s market and gets you where you want to go. 

Today’s Tale of Two Housing Markets

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

Depending on where you live, the housing market could feel red-hot or strangely quiet right now. The truth is, local markets are starting to move in different directions. In some places, buyers are calling the shots. In others, sellers still hold the power. It’s a tale of two markets.

 

What’s a Buyer’s Market vs. a Seller’s Market?

In a buyer’s market, there are more homes for sale and not as many buyers. That means homes sit longer, buyers have more negotiating power, and prices tend to soften as a result. It’s simple supply and demand.

On the flip side, a seller’s market happens when there aren’t enough homes available for the number of people looking to buy them. Because buyers have to compete with each other to get the house they want, that leads to faster sales, multiple offers, and rising prices.

Right now, both of these scenarios are playing out, depending on where you are. So, how do you know what kind of market you’re in? Lean on a local real estate agent. They’ll explain what’s really happening in your area based on these key drivers.

The Number of Buyers and Sellers by Region

One of the biggest factors impacting each market is the number of active buyers and sellers. According to Redfin, here’s what that looks like by region (see graph below):

Today, the Northeast and Midwest are more likely to be seller’s markets. Buyers still outnumber sellers there, and that keeps things tilted in favor of homeowners. Generally speaking, homes are selling faster and prices are rising in those areas.

But the South and West are leaning more toward buyer’s markets. There are more sellers than buyers, which means more listings to choose from and less competition among buyers.

That’s a major shift from a few years ago when sellers had the advantage almost everywhere. Today, your local conditions matter more than ever – and they can vary even from one neighborhood to the next.

Price Trends Mirror the Buyer/Seller Divide

When inventory and buyer activity shift, so do prices. In places where demand still outpaces supply, like much of the Northeast and Midwest, prices are continuing to climb.

But in parts of the South and West where inventory is up and demand has cooled, prices are softening. And that’s a plus for buyers looking to negotiate in those areas.

Here’s the latest price data from ResiClub to show how this divide is shaking out across the top metros in the country (see graph below):

This is why it’s the tale of two markets. Roughly half of the top 50 metros are up, and half are relatively flat or down.

That said, don’t panic if you own a home in a market where prices are dipping. Most homeowners have built up significant equity over the past few years, and chances are you have too. So, you’re likely still come out way ahead when you sell.

Why Local Insights Matter

Even in regions that lean more buyer-friendly right now, there will be cities, towns, and even neighborhoods that don’t follow the regional trends. That’s why an agent’s local market expertise is so important. They can help you understand what’s happening all the way down to a zip code level, including:

• Whether your area is favoring buyers or sellers
• How to set the right price or craft an offer strategy based on local trends
• The best way to make your move happen, no matter what’s happening in the market

Bottom Line

In a market where conditions vary this much from place to place, success starts with understanding every aspect of your local area. Connect with a local agent so you’ve got an expert in your corner who knows exactly how to guide you through your market, wherever you are. 

 

Housing Market Forecasts for the Rest of 2025

Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

 

 If you’ve been watching the market, you’ve likely noticed a few changes already this year. But what’s next? From home prices to mortgage rates, here’s what the latest expert forecasts suggest for the rest of 2025 – and what these shifts could mean for you.

 

  

 

Will Home Prices Fall?

Many buyers are hoping home prices will come down soon. And recent headlines about prices dipping in some areas are making some people believe it’s just a matter of time before there’s a bigger drop. But here are the facts.

While home price growth is slowing down, that doesn’t mean we’re headed for a crash. As NAHB explains:

“House price growth slowed . . . partly due to a decline in demand and an increase in supply. Persistent high mortgage rates and increased inventory combined to ease upward pressure on house prices. These factors signaled a cooling market, following rapid gains seen in previous years.”

But experts say, even with that slowdown, prices will still rise this year at the national level. The average of 8 leading forecasters shows prices are expected to go up 1.5-2% in 2025 (see graph below):

That means, if you’re waiting for a major drop, experts agree that’s just not in the cards.

Keep in mind, while some markets are already seeing prices come down slightly, the average dip is just -3.5%. That’s a far cry from the nearly 20% decline the market experienced during the 2008 crash.

Plus, those small changes are easily absorbed when you consider how much home prices have climbed over the past few years. Data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows prices are up 55% nationally compared to just 5 years ago.

The takeaway? Prices aren’t crashing. They’re expected to keep climbing – just not as quickly these days. And some may argue they’ll be closer to flat by the end of this year. But, again, this is going to vary by market, with some local ups and downs. So, lean on a pro to see the latest price trends for your area.

Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?

Another common thought among today’s buyers is: I’m just going to wait for rates to come down. But is that a smart strategy? According to Yahoo Finance:

“If you’re looking for a substantial interest rate drop in 2025, you’ll likely be left waiting. The latest news from the Federal Reserve and other key economic data point toward steady mortgage rates on par with what we see today.”

In other words, don’t try to time the market or wait for a drop that may not be coming. Most experts say rates will remain in the 6s, and current projections have them settling in the mid-6% range by the end of this year (see chart below):

And that’s not a big change from where they are right now. So, if you need to move, let’s talk about how to make it happen and what you should watch for. Because while rates may not be as low as you want them to be, you don’t want to put your needs on the back burner, hoping for something the data shows isn’t likely to happen.

Working with an expert who is keeping an eye on all the economic factors that can influence mortgage rates is going to be essential this year. That’s because changes in things like inflation and other key drivers could impact how rates move going forward. 

The Takeaway for Buyers and Sellers

Whether you’re buying, selling, or thinking about doing both, this market requires strategy, not guesswork. Prices are still rising nationally (just more slowly), and rates are projected to stay pretty much where they are, so the bigger picture is one of moderation – not a meltdown.

Bottom Line

If you want to make a move, your best bet is to focus on your personal situation – not what the headlines say – and work with a real estate pro who knows how to navigate the shifting conditions in your local market. 

The Truth About Where Home Prices Are Heading

 Article Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters/The KCM Blog

There are plenty of headlines these days calling for a housing market crash. But the truth is, they’re not telling the full story. Here’s what’s actually happening, and what the experts project for home prices over the next 5 years. And spoiler alert – it’s not a crash.

Yes, in some local markets, prices are flattening or even dipping slightly this year as more homes hit the market. That’s normal with rising inventory. But the bigger picture is what really matters, and it’s far less dramatic than what the doom-and-gloom headlines suggest. Here’s why.

Over 100 leading housing market experts were surveyed in the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae. Their collective forecast shows prices are projected to keep rising over the next 5 years, just at a slower, healthier pace than what we’ve seen more recently. And that kind of steady, sustainable growth should be one factor to help ease your fears about the years ahead (see graph below): 

And if you take a look at how the various experts responded within the survey, they fall into three main categories: those that were most optimistic about the forecast, most pessimistic, and the overall average outlook.

Here’s what the breakdown shows:

• The average projection is about 3.3% price growth per year, through 2029.
• The optimists see growth closer to 5.0% per year.
• The pessimists still forecast about 1.3% growth per year.

Do they all agree on the same number? Of course not. But here’s the key takeaway: not one expert group is calling for a major national decline or a crash. Instead, they expect home prices to rise at a steady, more sustainable pace.

That’s much healthier for the market – and for you. Yes, some areas may see prices hold relatively flat or dip a bit in the short term, especially where inventory is on the rise. Others may appreciate faster than the national average because there are still fewer homes for sale than there are buyers trying to purchase them. But overall, more moderate price growth is cooling the rapid spikes we saw during the frenzy of the past few years.

And remember, even the most conservative experts still project prices will rise over the course of the next 5 years. That’s also because foreclosures are low, lending standards are in check, and homeowners have near record equity to boost the stability of the market. Together, those factors help prevent a wave of forced sales, like the kind that could drag prices down. So, if you’re waiting for a significant crash before you buy, you might be waiting quite a long time.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been on the fence about your plans, now’s the time to get clarity. The market isn’t heading for a crash – it’s on track for steady, slow, long-term growth overall, with some regional ups and downs along the way.

Want to know what that means for your neighborhood? Because national trends set the tone, but what really matters is what’s happening in your zip code. Connect with a real estate agent to have a quick conversation so you can see exactly what the local data means for you. 

BEAUTIFUL WILLOW BEND WITH BASEMENT

52095 Longspur Lane Website

Come and enjoy resort-style living in amenity-rich Sun City Carolina Lakes. This beautiful 3BR/3BA Willow Bend basement home is move-in ready. Main floor features a large great room w/formal dining area, SS appliances, flex room (office/study/craft room), and screened porch. Primary ensuite bedroom has a shower and garden tub, bedroom 2, full bathroom, and laundry room with a sink. Spacious basement has a large great room, third bedroom, bathroom, 2 large flex rooms, and a large unfinished storage room. Great view of woods from upper level deck and covered patio off of basement. Conveniently located in the Grey Hawk neighborhood, near The Lodge and Water's Edge Park. Now is the time to live your dream! Come and enjoy all the beautiful amenities & diverse activities this premier 55+ community has to offer! Sun City Carolina Lakes has a public golf course and is in close proximity to shopping, restaurants, medical facilities, recreation areas, entertainment, and more!  

WHAT KIND OF MARKET ARE WE IN?

I am frequently asked about what our housing market is like right now.  In reality, that's more than one question, so I'll attempt to answer the questions that I think people are most concerned about.

 

How many homes are for sale in SCCL right now?  

The answer to this question can always be found right here at my website by using the UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL and CURRENTLY ACTIVE / UNDER CONTRACT / SOLD YTD tabs at the top of the page.  

 

Are we in a Buyers' or Sellers' market?

 

 Home Inventory Determines What Kind of Market We Are In

Months of supply is the measure of how many months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales. For example, if there are 50 homes on the market and 10 homes selling each month, there is a 5 month supply of homes for sale.  

• Less than 6 months of inventory = Seller's Market with upward pressure on prices
• More than 6 months of inventory = Buyer's Market with downward pressure on prices

Use the UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL tab above (and scroll down below the STATS charts) to see "Months Supply of Homes for Sale" interactive graphs below at any time.  

 

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

CARRIAGE HOMES AND VILLAS

 

You can use the UP-TO-DATE STATS FOR SCCL tab above

to see additional graphs with the following information:

 HOMES FOR SALE • PENDING SALES • CLOSED SALES • AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET • AVERAGE LIST TO CLOSE DAYS • AVERAGE PERCENT OF ORIGINAL PRICE

 

A Historical Look at the SCCL market... 

Looking back ten years... the largest number of single family homes for sale was 73 in September of 2017.  At that time, there was a 7 month supply, considered a Buyers' Market.

 

 

 

The largest number of Carriage Homes and Villas for sale (prior to the 12 today) was 11 in February of 2018.  At that time, there was a 5.8 month supply, considered to be at the high end of a Sellers' Market.

 

 

 

Note that Pulte sold their last home in SCCL in 2016, 

so some homes in 2015 and 2016 were new builds.

 

Why are so many homes on the market now?

It is important to understand that many of the original owners who purchased when SCCL opened almost twenty years ago are now into their eighties.  Life changes, needs change.  As we get older, our ability (and desire) to keep up a home, shop, cook, drive, deal with medical needs and everyday life may require us to move somewhere that can better meet our current needs. That might mean a continuous care community that covers the range from independent living to skilled nursing or memory care, or moving to be closer to family for support. There are many other reasons that people move, but the current number of homes on the market suggests that many of our residents may be aging out and looking for an alternative living style to meet their needs.

 

Is this a good time to sell?

I frequently tell people that we don't run on a school year schedule, so we don't face the spring/summer rush to get settled before school starts. Buyers are coming to SCCL for a variety of reasons and at various times of year.  Some are looking to get away from winter weather, some are looking to be closer to family, some are still working and move to be close to their employment, and most are looking at our great location (proximity to Charlotte, South Carolina taxes, nearby medical facilities, shopping, and major highways, etc.) and our year-round active lifestyle.  Summer, being a vacation time for many, might mean a slow-down in Buyers... or it might be a good time for folks to visit while on vacation. While it might be a little slower during the heat of the summer, it's always a good time to sell, if that's what meets your needs.    

 

Are sales being affected by mortgage rates?

While mortgage rates are certainly higher than they were four or five years ago, they are still considerably lower than the crazy high rates we remember back in 1981 and the decade that followed.  For some, the current rate may make a difference, but for many who are cashing out on homes they've lived in for a long time, it may not matter.  In October 2023, in a posting called ARE THERE MORE CASH OR LOAN SALES IN SCCL AND TREE TOPS?,  I shared that over half of the homes in SCCL were cash purchases.

 

In case you missed it, here's a great article about Sellers with existing low mortgage rates chosing to move: Why More Sellers Are Choosing To Move, Even with Today’s Rates

 

Here is a posting about interest rates from a March 2018 posting 

that you might find interesting.

Be Thankful You Don't Have to Pay Your Parents' Interest Rate!

If you have any additional questions about our SCCL market, please give me a call!